A Tycoon's Trading Diary

True story of the making of a tycoon. Options trading, trading systems, wealth, money management...

Monday, April 16, 2007

Earnings season real start, day 4

General notes
I will not rewrite the whole story I put here on how I want to alter my earnings season option trading strategy, as in the meantime I have found a really good article that gives a good insight in what was a key difference between my RIMM Long Strangle and my LRCX Assym Strangle. The key was probably hidden in the VIX figures, read this article to understand why.
My learning points and alterations to my earnings report play (ERP) templates thus are as follows:
  1. VIX shall be going down or simply low readings (say under its 20 day SMA),
  2. Stock has to have a high beta (above 1.5 or so),
  3. Stock needs to trade above $75 at least.

Watchlist and trade candidates filtered
TTC-A: AZN, DECK, FMC, LVS,
GAPHV: ANF, IPS
MACDV: DRIV, JOYG, TNB
Possible earnings plays: IBM - fair value per Morningstar; STLD - fairly overvalued as per Morningstar reports.

Trade session notes
Nikkei...17628.30...+264.35...+1.5%.
Hang Seng...20757.53...+416.56...+2.0%.
DAX...7265.25...+53.18...+0.7%.
FTSE...6496.40...+34.00...+0.5%.
CBOE VIX 11.54-0.66
10:37:51 AM Made an IBM ERP trade (2 legged long strangle - May 100 Call & May 95 Put). Shall put in stop orders for the wrong sides quite tight before market open the next day.

Open positions at market close 13 April 2007:

Advanced trade positions - "leftover legs
.LMQEK LRCX MAY 55 Call $51.86


$0.85
($75.00)
.RFYDK RIMM APR 155 Call $132.74



$0.00 ($440.00)